Morning Call about Car sales up by 24% in 4MFY12 – Arif Habib Limited

Karachi: As per the latest release of the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) car sales have improved by 24% in 4MFY12 to 58,576 units.

According to Arif Habib Limited, On MoM basis however, this growth has appeared to have slowed down to 8% to 15,069 units in October 2011. Following the same track, LCVs and pick up segment exhibited a YoY growth of 33% to 12,332 units during the period under review. This stellar growth is appeared to have driven by strong workers’ remittances inflows (up 23%) and low based effect due to floods last year

PSMC; Mehran leading the way

Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) dominated the market with 38% YoY growth in the car sales to 34,877 units. Company’s largest selling brand Mehran posted a strong YoY growth of 50% to 11,414 units, mainly on account of lower base effect of last year and deliveries of Taxies in Punjab government’s Taxi Scheme. This strong growth in Mehran was supported by healthy growth of 32% and 31% in Bolan and Cultus, respectively.

HCAR; City fuelling the growth

Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) posted a healthy growth of 14% YoY to 5,893 units during 4MFY12. This was mainly originated from a 20% YoY growth in City to 3,647 units, also supported by a 5% YoY growth in Civic to 2,246 units. On MoM basis however, HCAR suffered a decline of 13% as Civic suffered a MoM drop of 30% in October 2011.

INDU; Hilux standing out

Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) achieved a 7% YoY growth to 17,806 units. This growth was mainly supported by Corolla and Hilux with YoY growth of 6% and 135%, respectively. Daihatsu Cuore on the other hand turned out to be the dragger for the company with its sales down by 19% YoY to 1,532 units. On MoM basis, Corolla posted even stronger growth of 35% to 4,493 units, whereas Cuore dragged the overall growth to 25% MoM for INDU while suffering a decline of 43% MoM.

 

Auto data  Oct’11 Sep’11  MoM Oct’10 YoY 4MFY12 4MFY11  YoY
1300cc & above 6,628 5,766 14.9% 5,577 18.8% 23,564 20,526 14.8%
1000cc 2,391  2,090 14.4% 2,063 15.9% 9,734 7,742 25.7%
<1000cc 3,249 3,342 -2.8% 2,750 18.1% 12,946 9,497 36.3%
Total cars 12,268 11,198 9.6% 10,645 15.2% 46,244 37,765 22.5%
LCV’s + 4×4  2,801 2,772 1.0% 2,750 1.9% 12,332  9,308 32.5%
Total 15,069 13,970 7.9% 13,395 12.5% 58,576 47,073 24.4%

 

 

Company wise Oct’11 Sep’11  MoM Oct’10 YoY 4MFY12 4MFY11  YoY
PSMC 8,462  8,114 4% 7,459 13% 34,877 25,279 38%
INDU 4,986 3,991 25% 4,762 5% 17,806 16,622 7%
HCAR 1,621 1,865 -13.1% 1,340 21% 5,893 5,172 14%
Source: PAMA

 

Tractors; Back on track

After suffering a steep decline of 54% YoY in 1QFY12, tractors emerged strongly in October 2011 with a MoM increase of 80% to 4,054 units, just 181 units short from the accumulated 1QFY12 sales of 4,235 units.

Arif Habib’s top pick in the sector is INDU with a June-12Target Price of PKR 261/share, currently trading at a discount of 29% and FY12 P/E 6.9 with earnings expectation of PKR 29.7/share.

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